Can depleted Rising Pune do the triple over Mumbai?
Mumbai Indians are in familiar territory - playing a qualifier, that too at Wankhede Stadium. They have made it past the league stages in seven out of 10 seasons now and have won both their previous playoffs at this venue. Winning here for them might sound as easy as sweating in the Mumbai humidity. What do they have to worry about now? It's their form against Rising Pune Supergiant, who have qualified for the playoffs for the first time, in their last season.
Rising Pune had the better of their neighbours in both the previous matches this season - they first won by seven wickets at home and then handed Mumbai their first loss while chasing this season, that too at their fortress Wankhede. It broke Mumbai's six-match winning streak; it broke Mumbai's five-match winning streak while chasing and created a chink in their chasing conviction. The next time Mumbai chased, they only managed to tie in a pursuit of 154 against Gujarat Lions but eventually won in the Super Over. In the next two matches they chased at home, they won one but lost to Kings XI Punjab despite scoring 223.
Rising Pune's formula while winning on both occasions was to dent Mumbai's strength - their middle order. They haven't relied only on a couple of batsmen, or only the openers, or only the foreign batsmen. Unlike the other teams that have done well in this IPL, Mumbai's batsmen have shared the run-scoring burden. No Mumbai batsman has over 400 runs yet, and not one of them features among the top 10 run-getters of the tournament yet. But their batsmen from No. 3 downwards have done the bulk of the accumulation and acceleration through Nitish Rana, Rohit Sharma and Kieron Pollard.
When Rising Pune played them the first time this season, no Mumbai batsman, apart from the opener Jos Buttler, passed 35. They posted 184 and Steven Smith flicked the runs away in the chase. The second time, Rising Pune were defending only 160 but they didn't let any batsman, barring Rohit, score freely and over 35. Imran Tahir and Ben Stokes held the key for Rising Pune, accounting for seven of the 16 wickets Mumbai lost in those two games. They claimed collective figures of 16-1-117-7, including the wickets of big guns such as Rohit, Pollard and Buttler, at an economy rate of 7.31.
Tahir had not only been their top wicket-taker until two matches ago, he was their go-to bowler in the middle overs. He has 13 wickets in 33 overs in that phase with an economy rate of just over seven; the next Rising Pune bowler on that list is Dan Christian with seven wickets, which shows they have been perhaps over-reliant on Tahir. He would target the stumps, he would dart in the quicker ones and slip in the googlies, one of which got Rohit. If Tahir didn't get wickets, Smith would turn to Stokes.
The England allrounder would bowl in the Powerplay, he would bowl in the middle overs, he would bowl at the death, and he would get you wickets. If it was possible, he could even bowl the 21st over for Rising Pune. His team prospered during the middle and end of the league phase by winning seven out of nine matches and Stokes bagged nine of his 12 wickets in those games at an economy rate of 6.72. He is not only one of the top players for Rising Pune, he is one of the best players of the tournament so far because of his all-round abilities.
The problem Rising Pune face now is they are without both Tahir and Stokes. On the other hand, Mumbai showed their bench strength by making six changes in their last match against Kolkata Knight Riders and still winning. Rising Pune can still be cheerful, though. When they stormed into the first Qualifier by trampling Kings XI Punjab on Sunday, they did it without Tahir and without much contribution from Stokes. Tahir had already left India while Stokes bowled three wicketless overs. Jaydev Unadkat and Shardul Thakur did the bulk of the work with the new ball to dismantle Kings XI for 73.
With Stokes also gone now, Rising Pune will be looking at New Zealand fast bowler Lockie Ferguson or the hitherto unused Australia batsman Usman Khawaja.
"Yes, we will miss Stokes because he has done really well for us in batting, bowling as well as fielding," Rahane said on Sunday. "But we've got a few other international [players] who are experienced, who have done well in this format. Lockie Ferguson has done well in that one game, and Usman Khawaja is here. Our Indian batsmen are also doing well."
But can they repeat what they did to Kings XI on Sunday, against the table-toppers and probably the best team of the tournament? The record of the season will encourage them even if the Wankhede crowd does not.
"It will be an advantage for sure, we've beaten them twice already this season," Unadkat told iplt20.com on Sunday. "They'll have that thing in mind as well. We must grab the opportunity that has come our way, having finished second in the points table. The momentum is on our side a bit more than them because they haven't done really well in the last couple of games. They are a formidable side but the firepower we have in our backyard is good enough to outclass any team on any day and that's what we'll be hoping."
If Mumbai sprang a surprise this season by unexpectedly becoming the first, and not the last, team to qualify, Rising Pune have a chance to stupefy Mumbai and become the first team to reach the final this season.