Shami succeeds flying in the face of T20 logic

Mohammed Shami is a stubborn stubborn person. WV Raman, the Bengal coach, often tells the story of how he went all out when running a 102-degree fever on a flat unresponsive pitch with a 60-over-old ball on his first-class debut. He couldn't prevent a professionals-filled Assam team from taking a first-innings lead, but that stubborn bowler had won the heart of perhaps the best coach a young cricketer can get at the start of their career.

Years later, at the same Eden Gardens, Shami went ahead with his bowling in a Test and didn't even let his India team-mates know his 14-month-old daughter was in the ICU.

Shami's training methods are just as stubborn. Most of it is just bowling full pelt. He does much less gym work than your usual fast bowler. During the Covid-19 lockdown, he rolled a pitch at his home in an Uttar Pradesh village and just bowled and bowled.

Shami's stubbornness in T20 cricket is now reaping handsome rewards for Gujarat Titans. For a long time, it was not unreasonable to dismiss him as predictable, a bowler who didn't mix up his lengths or pace. In his first five IPLs, the best average he had was 48 in 2018.

Shami's returns improved when he moved to Punjab Kings in 2019 to a point where he ended 2021 with an average of 20.78 and an economy rate of 7.5. It was understandable that PBKS didn't retain him before the 2022 auction, but they didn't even bid for him. GT fought for him and outbid Royal Challengers Bangalore.

Shami gave them 20 wickets last year, and has already picked up 24 this year at an economy rate of 7.7, which has given him the purple cap ahead of team-mate Rashid Khan who has the same number of wickets.

Expectedly Shami has done the most damage in the powerplay, taking 15 wickets during the field restrictions at an average of 17.33 and an economy rate of 7.02. Trent Boult and Mohammed Siraj come close to those impressive numbers, but Boult has fought a niggle through the season, and Siraj (average 17.8, economy rate 5.93 during powerplay) doesn't have the back-up that Shami has so he has had to be held back for later too. In 14 matches, Shami has bowled 37 overs in this phase compared to Siraj's 30.

It is no surprise that Shami has picked up all these wickets with the new ball: he has drawn false responses to 37% of his deliveries in the powerplay. Marco Jansen has come close with 36%, Siraj 32%. The record for most false responses in an IPL belongs to Deepak Chahar with 86 in 2019. Shami is set to go past it as he has drawn a non-in-control response 82 times already this IPL.

What is surprising, though, is that Shami hasn't extracted more movement than other fast bowlers. Shami's average swing in the powerplay has been the same as the average swing for other fast bowlers in the matches that he has played: 0.9 degrees. Off the pitch he has drawn 0.6 degree of movement on an average; other fast bowlers in those matches have managed 0.5 degrees. Sam Curran, Jansen and Matheesha Pathirana have drawn 0.7 degree seam movement on an average this season.

That 0.1 degree of extra seam at high pace can still be quite significant because the time to adjust is little. And Shami has bowled 40% of his deliveries at over 140kmph. On 58% of the times he has been between 130 and 140, bowling under 130 only 2% of the times.

Despite that 0.1 degree of the extra seam, the most plausible explanation for Shami's success is his stubbornness. His control and the willingness to persist with hard lengths has been immaculate.

A stark 85% of his deliveries in the powerplay have been bowled in the good length and short-of-a-good length band of 5m to 9.2m from the stumps. Even in that, he has been short of a length 55% of the times, which means he is not letting batters come forward nor allowing them horizontal bat shots. Other fast bowlers in the same matches have been short of a length only 37% of the times, bowling good length or overpitching 46% of the times. Thirteen of Shami's 15 wickets have come off those hard lengths.

There are bowlers who have moved the ball more, there are those who have bowled quicker, but there have hardly been any with the persistence of Shami. He has not resorted to slower balls or new releases, but just gone seam-up again and again, and tried to bowl lengths that cannot be hit without a significant degree of risk.

Outside the powerplay, Shami has also bowled 13 overs at the death, roughly one each match, for seven wickets, an average of 18.14 and a perfectly acceptable economy rate of 9.76. Among fast bowlers, only Pathirana and Mohit Sharma have been better than him on both the counts.

Of course Shami benefits from being part of a well-rounded attack that can utilise him in a phase best suited to him and not over-expose him at the death, but the sequence of events always is that a bowler first shows he has something to give, and the team then accommodates him. Never the other way around.

Cricday's Smart Stats adjust his wickets to 29.37 and his economy rate to 7.58. Only Siraj has had more impact than Shami, which also points to the weaker attack around Siraj. Siraj at least has a variation: outswinger and the wobble-seam delivery that jags back in. Shami has just persevered with the upright seam ball after ball, and has almost bent the ball to his wishes. In a format that bowlers have limited agency, that is some achievement, one that has been key to GT's success.