KKR in must-win territory against hot-and-cold Punjab Kings

Big Picture - Another loss could be curtains for KKR

With four games to go for Kolkata Knight Riders, they are in must-win territory if they are to finish on 16 points - that was the magic number last season for a top-four finish, so it's likely win or bust for Nitish Rana's side.

Punjab Kings have a little more breathing room - even with one more defeat they can get to 16, but that's about all the margin for error they have. If they don't want to follow KKR into do-or-die territory, then Kings need to win at Eden Gardens - and in a convincing manner too, to boost their poor net run rate.

That is very much a possibility for Kings, though, with away teams enjoying success at Eden Gardens this season. KKR have not won at home in their last three matches and, even if their openers Jason Roy and Rahmanullah Gurbaz are in moderate form, their top order is a major weakness.

Kings' middle order, led by Liam Livingstone and Jitesh Sharma, has the goods to cause extreme damage at Eden Gardens, and pound-for-pound provide as much threat as Rana, Rinku Singh and Andre Russell. They'll just have to be wary of the danger Varun Chakravarthy and Suyash Sharma pose. If they navigate that successfully, Kings will be favourites to clinch the encounter, despite the fact that they've blown hot and cold themselves - they have not won two games in a row since their first two this season.

Team news - Kagiso Rabada or Nathan Ellis?

Ellis is skiddy and has a knack of taking wickets across all phases, with three scalps apiece in the powerplay, the middle, and the death this season. His powerplay economy of 6.8 in six innings is stunning, and so he could start ahead of Rabada. But Kings will also have in mind that Rabada's extra pace and incisive short balls could trouble KKR's Indian batters and Russell and Sunil Narine. Kings could also add a batter-cum-spinner option by bringing Sikandar Raza in for Matthew Short.

Knight Riders are likely to stick with the same batting order and spin group. Vaibhav Arora and Harshit Rana will be the Indian seamers in the line-up. Umesh Yadav sustained sustained a minor left hamstring injury during the match against Royal Challengers Bangalore and has started low-intensity bowling as part of his rehab process, according to the BCCI. Johnson Charles, who was roped in as Litton Das' replacement, has linked up with the KKR team, but it remains unclear whether he will be available for selection for Monday's game. Neither side has injury concerns.

Form guide

KKR: WLWLL (last five matches, most recent first)

Punjab Kings: LWLWL

Impact Player strategy

Kolkata Knight Riders

Even though Suyash has been KKR's second-best bowler of the tournament, the side has not shied away from bringing left-arm spinner Anukul Roy into the XI ahead of him, as an all-round option in the first innings if there's been a batting collapse. If KKR chase, Suyash is the favourite for the Impact Player job.

Probable XII: 1 Jason Roy, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Venkatesh Iyer, 4 Nitish Rana, 5 Rinku Singh, 6 Andre Russell, 7 Shardul Thakur, 8 Sunil Narine, 9 Harshit Rana, 10 Vaibhav Arora, 11 Varun Chakravarthy, 12 Suyash Sharma/Anukul Roy

Punjab Kings

Prabhsimran Singh is the likely Impact Player, most probably replacing an overseas pace bowler after their spell is done if Kings chase.

Probable XII: 1 Shikhar Dhawan, 2 Prabhsimran Singh, 3 Matthew Short/Sikandar Raza, 4 Liam Livingstone, 5 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 6 Sam Curran, 7 M Shahrukh Khan, 8 Rishi Dhawan, 9 Harpreet Brar, 10 Rahul Chahar, 11 Arshdeep Singh, 12 Nathan Ellis/Kagiso Rabada

The big question

Stats and trivia - Contrasting spin numbers

• The two sides have the two lowest averages for opening stands this tournament. KKR's first wicket averages 20 while Kings' corresponding number is 20.1.

• Russell has just returned to form and he will be keen to face Rabada and Curran. He has hit Rabada for 79 in 39 balls with only one dismissal in seven games. He has also smashed 30 runs in 15 balls against Curran, but has been dismissed twice in four innings.

• Do KKR introduce Chakravarthy early? He has dismissed Dhawan three times in five innings.

• Russell (175) and Livingstone (166) have the two highest strike rates in IPL history (among batters who have aggregated at least 500 runs).

• KKR's spinners have taken the most wickets as a unit (35) after ten games in IPL 2023 while Kings' have the fewest (12).

Pitch and conditions

No total seems safe on the batting-friendly Kolkata surface. The ball does turn but not menacingly enough. Expect another game where 200+ is par (the average first-innings winning total across four games here at IPL 2023 so far has been 222).

It should be a dry Monday evening.

Quotes

"We are taking it one game at a time. We have earlier won games from impossible situations, so this is not impossible either. We are staying confident."
KKR seamer Vaibhav Arora on the team's mindset ahead Monday's match