The Ashton Agar puzzle for Australia
Ashton Agar is a good problem for Australia to have. Most sides would love an experienced left-arm spinner, who in his last 10 T20Is, has maintained an economy rate of 5.60.
In his last two matches against Sri Lanka, he has staggering figures of 2 for 28 from eight overs. He has bowled 21 dot balls and conceded 27 singles and one wide only. Team-mate Glenn Maxwell believes Agar, right now, is better than ever.
"The way he's bowled in this series is no shock to anyone," Maxwell said following Australia's six-wicket win at the MCG. "His control is brilliant. He's working on different deliveries all the time, always looking for a way to get better and it's just a sign of a really good maturing player who's got full hold of his skill at the moment."
The problem is not his bowling. It's that Australia's hierarchy don't know how to fit the Agar puzzle piece into their best line-up. As well as he's bowled in his last 10 T20Is since July 2021, Australia have lost seven of them, including the only game he played in the World Cup. In the 10 games he hasn't played in that same period Australia have won eight, including six in the World Cup to lift the trophy for the very first time.
As good as Agar is with the ball and in the field, his batting doesn't quite fit in Australia's overall T20 jigsaw. It is alluring though. The raw skills are incredibly appealing. His long, languid arms produce an eye-catching bat swing, and his best strikes are glorious. But those strikes are few and far between. In nearly 10 years of professional T20 cricket, across 92 innings, Agar averages 16.89, strikes at 116.63, and scores a boundary once every 7.97 deliveries. That he consistently bats in front of Pat Cummins who averages 17.11, strikes at 133.79 and scores a boundary once every 6.59 deliveries is mystifying. Even Daniel Sams, Australia's No. 8 in the last two T20Is, averages 14.82, strikes 151.21 and scores a boundary once every 5.37 deliveries.
Agar's batting in T20I cricket is more closely aligned with Mitchell Starc, who has faced 82 balls in 17 innings, only batted higher than No. 9 six times and never higher than No. 8. Agar averages 11.76, strikes at just 103.34 and scores a boundary once every 9.96 balls. Starc averages 9.33 and strikes at 102.43 and scores a boundary once every 13.67 balls.
Australia's hierarchy knows that Agar can't bat at No. 7 anymore. Their success in the World Cup showed the need to have a specialist batter there after Matthew Wade produced two cameos against South Africa and Pakistan that were pivotal in their triumph.
It means that if Agar plays, he will have to be part of a four-man attack, either in place of Adam Zampa or alongside him, which squeezes out one of their big three quicks and leaves them short on powerplay and death overs.
So, with David Warner and Mitchell Marsh rested for the series against Sri Lanka and Steven Smith ruled out of the last three games due to concussion, Australia have taken the opportunity to try something completely different and open with Agar.
The theory is similar to how Sunil Narine has become a T20 opener. It's no surprise that Australia's interim coach Andrew McDonald and captain Aaron Finch were willing to try it, given they were the first to try Narine at the top of the order for Melbourne Renegades in the BBL in 2017, before Kolkata Knight Riders used him there with great success in the IPL. The idea is that if a bowler can open, in arguably the easiest spot to bat, then it stretches Australia's line-up and holds Wade at No. 7 to give them depth. But it does push Finch out of position and creates a squeeze on middle-order places, which puts pressure on Smith.
Narine's T20 batting numbers, like Agar's, were far from spectacular ahead of his first stint opening. He averaged 11.16, was striking 124.02, and scored a boundary once every 6.79 deliveries. But in 104 innings as an opener, Narine averages 18.17, strikes at 155.81, scores a boundary once every 3.76 deliveries, and has made 10 half-centuries.
The key though is that only three of those innings have been played outside the slow wickets of Asia and the Americas. They were on bouncy Australian tracks, where he made diminishing returns of 21 off 13, 12 off 10 and 4 off 4. Narine has also only opened twice in international cricket, scoring 4 off 12 and 2 off 6 against India in 2019.
While opening is in some respects the easiest spot to bat in T20 cricket, due to a hard new ball and just two fielders out for six overs, it takes a little getting used to when you're a bowling allrounder, as Agar discovered against Sri Lanka last night, facing 140kph plus deliveries from Dushmantha Chameera and Lahiru Kumara.
"They came at him hard with some really good hard fast bowling tonight and that's probably something they hadn't done too much of so far this series," Maxwell said.
Agar made 26 off 31 and faced 14 dots after scoring 13 off 13 in Canberra. But Stoinis said there was no expectation of Agar.
"[We said] just go out there and experience the game out there, understand how it feels to be out in the middle at the start of the innings. You don't need to do anything spectacular. Obviously, he'll want to perform as well as he can but no judgment from the team because this is a time when we've got to try things and change things up to a certain extent and look to improve on last year's World Cup and create some options in our squad. And we also understand for him although he's been one of the best bowlers in T20 cricket for such a long time, he might, with the balance of the side that we've had, find himself out of the team for a while. So I think it's definitely important for him to have time in the middle when he's playing."
While it is admirable for Australia to trial the concept, something they have rarely done before, and it is fair to suggest Agar needs more time and development in the opening role in both training and possibly at the lower level, the reality is hard to escape. Australia's opening World Cup match on October 22 is against New Zealand, with a fast-bowling brigade likely to feature three of Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Adam Milne and Lockie Ferguson. Six days later, Australia face England at the MCG, who could well have Jofra Archer, Chris Jordan, and/or Tymal Mills among a host of other options.
Australia will need their best two openers and their best top seven for those assignments, as they did to win the World Cup last year.
Where that will leave Agar in the starting XI, is once again a mystery.